Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but hardly any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the existing arrangement. They composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the idea that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they prefer unity but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
